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Working In Uncertainty
Improve your skills
In most situations we have limited control and knowledge, so our skill in dealing with this problem is relevant. Often, that skill is crucial. This page links to resources to help you develop your own skills. If you are young and without much life experience this could be particularly worthwhile, but I think anyone at any age can learn something from this varied collection.
The free resources include articles, self-tests, and case studies. I also provide a link to my book about risk mathematics.
For several years I have been using scenario-based tests to understand how we think in key situations at work where uncertainty/risk is important and I have seen huge differences between individuals. Most people give sensible responses in most situations. Some people are very wise and a safe pair of hands. Others I would be scared to put in charge of anything even slightly important.
Perhaps more worrying is that there are some situations where most people prefer approaches that history or science show to be dangerous (e.g. because of a hidden psychological trap).
The scope for improving the way individuals deal with key situations at work is huge. It can make you a much wiser, more effective manager. It can make your staff wiser, more reliable, and more effective. It can provide some protection against a range of unpleasant, stressful situations that arise when someone has made a poor choice. In short, if you make better choices in situations at work where uncertainty/risk is important you can be more successful and less stressed.
General management situations
- Making statements about demographic groups (2018, detailed guidance) (EPUB version for easy reading on smaller screens)
- How does a risk expert behave? (2016, written with Nik Silver, niksilver.com)
- Chairing meetings (2014, detailed guidance)
- Shaping your future (2013, personal planning tips)
- Management science for managing risk (2012, an introduction to techniques)
- Illustrative improvements for an individual (2011)
- Purchasing tasks on The Apprentice (2011, article)
- The rise of Harry Goodman, travel tycoon (2011, case study)
- Team New Zealand and the America's Cup (2011, case study)
- Pia Zadora's new career (2011, case study)
- ‘The Apprentice’ scenarios (2011, self test)
- Project scenarios (2011, self test)
- Board of Directors scenarios (2011, self test)
- Performance management scenarios (2011, self test)
- Sales scenarios (2011, self test)
- Conversations about performance (2011, self test)
- Other work-related scenarios (2011, self test)
- Luck and The Apprentice (2010, article)
- Post-implementation project failure (2008 article)
- Value Driven versus Target Driven planning (2006, article)
- Success with innovative projects (2006, short guide)
- Learning more from experience (2004, short guide)
- Why don't people do what they say they will? (Risk management of part-time projects) (2003, article)
- How to be convincing when you are uncertain (2003, short guide)
- How to talk openly about uncertainty at work (2003, short guide)
Marketing decisions
Some special jobs
Excel at science
The major focus of philosophizing about science has been the reliability of its findings. The articles below add a focus on efficiency to this as well as introducing a perspective on what explanations are that solves some outstanding problems with philosophies of science and helps explain why some branches of science seem to be struggling.
More personal topics
- Managing our vices (2022 detailed guide)
- Motivation, action, and uncertainty (2021 detailed guide)
- Uncertainty and making friends (2021, detailed guide) (EPUB version for easy reading on smaller screens)
- Managing the four main psychological stress reactions (2020, detailed guide)
- Promoting social harmony (2020, detailed guide)
- Finding unfairly biased assessments of people (2020, detailed guide)
- Good driving in the UK (2018, guide)
- Encouraging people to be CRED (capable, rational, ethical, diligent) (2017, guide)
- The ethics of faulty thinking (2016, article) (EPUB version for easy reading on smaller screens)
- Sporting situations (2012, self test)
- Stress Analyst (2013, interactive web page - does not reflect most recent thinking on stress but still quite good)
- Sporting situations (2012, self test)
- Supporting a big family decision (2012, case study)
- How to comfort a child in pain (2010, short guide)
- Individual differences in risk and uncertainty management (2006, survey results)
- Results of an experiment in risk and uncertainty communication (2006, survey results)
- Giving ideas (2006, guide)
- Why good intentions are eroded by the unexpected, and what to do about it (2004, guide)
- Overconfidence and strategic mistakes (2004, article)
- Open and honest about risk and uncertainty (2004, article)
- A new approach to stress management: Why uncertainty causes stress and tension, and how to stop it (2003, guide now superceded by 2020 publication above)
- Understanding uncertainty in interpersonal encounters (2003, article)
Using statistics and mathematics
These articles, with code, explain simple Bayesian techniques in Excel
A pocket guide to risk mathematics, a book by Matthew Leitch
Although this book is aimed specifically at auditors, its clear explanations and tips on faults to watch out for are useful for anyone with an interest in the topic. What emerges is that ‘risk’ in mathematics is a young and poorly formulated idea when compared with the long heritage of 'probability' and 'value'. The book explains several common mistakes in 'risk analysis'.
These really are key ideas that every auditor should know.
Made in England
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